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<a id="forecasting-growth"> </a> | <a id="forecasting-growth"> </a> | |||
### Forecasting Growth | ### Forecasting Growth | |||
By default, Prophet uses a linear model for its forecast. When forecasting growt h, there is usually some maximum achievable point: total market size, total popu lation size, etc. This is called the carrying capacity, and the forecast should saturate at this point. | By default, Prophet uses a linear model for its forecast. When forecasting growt h, there is usually some maximum achievable point: total market size, total popu lation size, etc. This is called the carrying capacity, and the forecast should saturate at this point. | |||
Prophet allows you to make forecasts using a [logistic growth](https://en.wikipe dia.org/wiki/Logistic_function) trend model, with a specified carrying capacity. We illustrate this with the log number of page visits to the [R (programming la nguage)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R_%28programming_language%29) page on Wik ipedia: | Prophet allows you to make forecasts using a [logistic growth](https://en.wikipe dia.org/wiki/Logistic_function) trend model, with a specified carrying capacity. We illustrate this with the log number of page visits to the [R (programming la nguage)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R_%28programming_language%29) page on Wik ipedia: | |||
```R | ```R | |||
# R | # R | |||
df <- read.csv('../examples/example_wp_log_R.csv') | df <- read.csv('https://raw.githubusercontent.com/facebook/prophet/main/examples /example_wp_log_R.csv') | |||
``` | ``` | |||
```python | ```python | |||
# Python | # Python | |||
df = pd.read_csv('../examples/example_wp_log_R.csv') | df = pd.read_csv('https://raw.githubusercontent.com/facebook/prophet/main/exampl es/example_wp_log_R.csv') | |||
``` | ``` | |||
We must specify the carrying capacity in a column `cap`. Here we will assume a p articular value, but this would usually be set using data or expertise about the market size. | We must specify the carrying capacity in a column `cap`. Here we will assume a p articular value, but this would usually be set using data or expertise about the market size. | |||
```R | ```R | |||
# R | # R | |||
df$cap <- 8.5 | df$cap <- 8.5 | |||
``` | ``` | |||
```python | ```python | |||
# Python | # Python | |||
df['cap'] = 8.5 | df['cap'] = 8.5 | |||
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